A generalised Bayes' factor formula for evidence evaluation under activity level propositions: Variations around a fibres scenario

Franco Taroni; Paolo Garbolino; Colin Aitken

doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2021.110750

A generalised Bayes' factor formula for evidence evaluation under activity level propositions: Variations around a fibres scenario

Forensic Sci Int. 2021 May:322:110750. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2021.110750. Epub 2021 Mar 15.

Authors

Franco Taroni¹, Paolo Garbolino², Colin Aitken³

Affiliations

¹ School of Criminal Justice, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. Electronic address: Franco.Taroni@unil.ch.
² Department of Architecture and Arts, IUAV University, Venice, Italy.
³ School of Mathematics and Maxwell Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.

PMID: 33784544
DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2021.110750

Abstract

Generalised Bayes' factors and associated Bayesian networks are developed for the transfer of extrinsic evidence at the activity level, developments that extend previous work on activity level evaluation. A strategy for the assessment of extrinsic evidence is developed in stages with progressive increases in complexity. The final development is illustrated with an example involving fibres from clothing. This provides a list of factors involved in the consideration of a transfer case with activity level propositions and their roles in the determination of evidential value.

Keywords: Activity level proposition; Bayes’ factor; Scientific evidence evaluation.