On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level

Xiaoqian Sun; Sebastian Wandelt; Anming Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.005

On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level

Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021 May:105:115-123. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.005. Epub 2021 Mar 21.

Authors

Xiaoqian Sun^{1

2}, Sebastian Wandelt^{1

2}, Anming Zhang³

Affiliations

¹ National Key Laboratory of CNS/ATM, School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beihang University, 100191, Beijing, China.
² National Engineering Laboratory of Multi-Modal Transportation Big Data, 10019, Beijing, China.
³ Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Abstract

COVID-19 is one of the most impactful pandemics in recent history, not only in terms of direct casualties but also regarding socio-economic impact. The goal of our study is to investigate the degree of synchronization between the number of confirmed cases in specific countries, on one hand, and how/at which stage these countries adapted their air transportation operations, on the other hand. We investigate the global air transportation system as a network of countries whose edges represent the existence of direct flights. Aggregated analysis of this country network and its evolving dynamics leads to novel insights regarding the synchronization with the number of confirmed cases; finding that most country borders were likely closed too late. We believe and hope that our analysis leads to a more efficient/effective prevention and control of future epidemics.

Keywords: Air transportation; COVID-19; Connectivity; Flight cancellations; Synchronization.