In the last few decades, the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory disease of the nervous system, has increased, particularly in Northern European countries, the United States, and United Kingdom. The promise of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) as tools to address problems in MS research has attracted increasing interest in these methods. Bayesian networks offer a clear advantage since they can integrate data and causal knowledge allowing for visualizing interactions between dependent variables and potential confounding factors. A review of AI/ML research methods applied to MS found 216 papers using terms "Multiple Sclerosis", "machine learning", "artificial intelligence", "Bayes", and "Bayesian", of which 90 were relevant and recently published. More than half of these involve the detection and segmentation of MS lesions for quantitative analysis; however clinical and lifestyle risk factor assessment and prediction have largely been ignored. Of those that address risk factors, most provide only association studies for some factors and often fail to include the potential impact of confounding factors and bias (especially where these have causal explanations) that could affect data interpretation, such as reporting quality and medical care access in various countries. To address these gaps in the literature, we propose a causal Bayesian network approach to assessing risk factors for MS, which can address deficiencies in current epidemiological methods of producing risk measurements and makes better use of observational data.
Keywords: AI decision Making; Bayesian networks; Multiple sclerosis; Risk factors.
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