Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response

Patricia Tarín-Carrasco; Ulas Im; Camilla Geels; Laura Palacios-Peña; Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2021.106517

Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response

Environ Int. 2021 Aug:153:106517. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106517. Epub 2021 Mar 23.

Authors

Patricia Tarín-Carrasco¹, Ulas Im², Camilla Geels², Laura Palacios-Peña¹, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
² Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
³ Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain; Biomedical Research Institute of Murcia (IMIB-Arrixaca), 30120 Murcia, Spain. Electronic address: pedro.jimenezguerrero@um.es.

Abstract

The World Health Organization estimates that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5) inpolluted air. Here, the number of premature deaths in Europe from different diseases associated to the ambient exposure to PM_2.5 have here been studied both for present (1991-2010) and future periods (2031-2050, RCP8.5 scenario). This contribution combines different state-of-the-art approaches (use of high-resolution climate/chemistry simulations over Europe for providing air quality data; use of different baseline mortality data for specific European regions; inclusion of future population projections and dynamical changes for 2050 obtained from the United Nations (UN) Population Projections or use of non-linear exposure-response functions) to estimate the premature mortality due to PM_2.5. The mortality endpoints included in this study are Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Cerebrovascular Disease (CEV), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Lower Respiratory Infection (LRI) and other Non-Communicable Diseases (other NCDs). Different risk ratio and baseline mortalities for each disease end each age range have been estimated individually. The results indicate that the annual excess mortality rate from fine particulate matter in Europe is 904,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 733,100-1,067,800], increasing by 73% in 2050s (1,560,000; 95% CI 1,260,000-1,840,000); meanwhile population decreases from 808 to 806 million according to the UN estimations. The results show that IHD is the main cause of premature mortality in Europe associated to PM_2.5 (around 48%) both for the present and future periods. Despite several marked regional differences, premature deaths associated to all the endpoints included in this study will increase in the future period due to the climate penalty but especially because of changes in the population projected and its aging.

Keywords: Air pollution; Cardiovascular diseases; Climate penalty; Fine particulate matter; Human health; Premature deaths.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollutants* / toxicity
Air Pollution* / adverse effects
Air Pollution* / analysis
Environmental Exposure / adverse effects
Europe / epidemiology
Humans
Mortality
Mortality, Premature
Particulate Matter / analysis
Particulate Matter / toxicity

Substances

Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter