Conception and bicentric validation of the proSCANNED score, a simplified bedside prognostic score for Heart Failure patients

Sci Rep. 2021 Mar 17;11(1):6179. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-85767-5.

Abstract

A simple and accurate prognostic tool for Heart Failure (HF) patients is critical to improve follow-up. Different risk scores are accurate but with limited clinical applicability. The current study aims to derive and validate a simple predictive tool for HF prognosis. French outpatients with stable HF of two university hospitals were included in the derivation (N = 134) or in the validation (N = 274) sample and followed up for a median of 23 months. Potential predictors were variables with known association with mortality and easily available. The proSCANNED risk score was derived using a parametric survival model on complete case data; it includes 8 binary variables and its values are 0-8. In the validation sample, the ability of the score to discriminate the 1-year vital status was moderate (AUC = 0.71, IC95% = [0.64-0.71]). However, the stratification of the score in three groups showed a good calibration for patients in the low- and medium-risk risk group. The proSCANNED score is an easy-to-use tool in clinical practice with a good discrimination, stability, and calibration sufficient to improve the medical care of patients. Other follow up studies are necessary to assess score applicability in larger populations, and its impact.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Female
  • France / epidemiology
  • Heart Failure / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors