JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States

Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg

doi:10.1016/j.jue.2021.103332

JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States

J Urban Econ. 2022 Jan:127:103332. doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103332. Epub 2021 Mar 11.

Authors

Klaus Desmet^{1

2

3}, Romain Wacziarg^{2

4}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Economics and Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University, 3300 Dyer, Dallas, TX 75205, USA.
² NBER, USA.
³ CEPR, UK.
⁴ UCLA Anderson School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles CA 90095, USA.

Abstract

What factors explain spatial variation in the severity of COVID-19 across the United States? To answer this question, we analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We document four sets of facts. First, effective density is an important and persistent determinant of COVID-19 severity. Second, counties with more nursing home residents, lower income, higher poverty rates, and a greater presence of African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately impacted, and these effects show no sign of disappearing over time. Third, the effect of certain characteristics, such as the distance to major international airports and the share of elderly individuals, dies out over time. Fourth, Trump-leaning counties are less severely affected early on, but later suffer from a large severity penalty.

Keywords: COVID-19; Determinants; Geography; Spatial variation; US counties.