Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption, and case detection

Sci Adv. 2021 Apr 9;7(15):eabd8750. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd8750. Print 2021 Apr.

Abstract

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is debated: Smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, with low coverage among the elderly, the most vulnerable to COVID-19. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact and epidemiological information to describe exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity, and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R = 2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R = 1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for the elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Contact Tracing*
  • Humans
  • Privacy*
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Smartphone*