Evidence revealed that climate change has a significant impact on grain production in China. Northeast China has abundant agricultural resources which can make the maximum contribution to national food security. This study examines the effects of climate variability and price anomalies on grain yield and land use in Northeast China. The analysis showed that different climate variability phase combinations based on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation present variations in signals and different magnitude of effects over the study area. The results revealed that land use by total grain crop negatively responds to the increase in price anomalies in Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces. To assess the impact of climate change on crop yield model, the yield models under dynamically downscaled regional climate models revealed that climate variables significantly contribute to total grain yields. In the near future, minimum temperature (- 0.26 °C under CanESM2-4.5, - 4.42 °C under HadGEM2-ES), maximum temperature (- 2.82 °C under CanESM2-4.5, - 0.84 under HadGEM2-ES), and precipitation (ranged from 3.59 to 11.10%) positively contribute to total grain yields under both models. Overall, analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.
Keywords: Climate change; Economics; El Nino; Northeast China; Precipitation; RCMs.
© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.