Estimating the risk of aflatoxin-induced liver cancer in Tanzania based on biomarker data

PLoS One. 2021 Mar 11;16(3):e0247281. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247281. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Evidence about the magnitude of the aflatoxin menace can help policy makers appreciate the importance of the problem and strengthen policies to support aflatoxin mitigation measures. In this study, we estimated aflatoxin-induced liver cancer risk in 2016 for Tanzania and used the information to estimate the health burden due to the aflatoxin exposure in the country. The burden of aflatoxin-induced liver cancer was assessed based on available aflatoxin biomarker data from a previous epidemiology study, hepatitis B virus infection prevalence and population size of Tanzania in 2016. The health burden due to aflatoxin-induced liver cancer was estimated using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The aflatoxin exposures ranged from 15.0-10,926.0 ng/kg bw/day (median, 105.5 ng/kg bw/day). We estimated that in 2016 there were about 1,480 (2.95 per 100,000 persons) new cases of aflatoxin-induced liver cancer in Tanzania and assumed all of them would die within a year. These morbidity and mortality rates led to a total loss of about 56,247.63 DALYs. These results show, quantitatively, the cases of liver cancer and related deaths that could be avoided, and the healthy life years that could be saved, annually, by strengthening measures to control aflatoxin contamination in Tanzania.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aflatoxins / adverse effects*
  • Aflatoxins / analysis
  • Aflatoxins / toxicity
  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Child, Preschool
  • Cost of Illness
  • Female
  • Health Care Costs
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Liver Neoplasms / chemically induced*
  • Liver Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Liver Neoplasms / mortality
  • Male
  • Morbidity
  • Prevalence
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Risk Factors
  • Tanzania / epidemiology

Substances

  • Aflatoxins
  • Biomarkers, Tumor

Grants and funding

YYG "Aflatoxin risk assessment and capacity building in Tanzania" from the University of Leeds QR GCRF Research England account number 95522719 (2017-18) www.leeds.ac.uk The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.