Analysis of the Current and Future Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Change Using Remote Sensing and the CA-Markov Model in Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves of Gambella, Southwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate land use/land cover changes (1987-2017), prediction (2032-2047), and identify the drivers of Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves. Landsat image (TM, ETM+, and OLI-TIRS) and socioeconomy data were used for the LU/LC analysis and its drivers of change. The supervised classification was also employed to classify LU/LC. The CA-Markov model was used to predict future LU/LC change using IDRISI software. Data were collected from 240 households from eight kebeles in two districts to identify LU/LC change drivers. Five LU/LC classes were identified: forestland, farmland, grassland, settlement, and waterbody. Farmland and settlement increased by 17.4% and 3.4%, respectively; while, forestland and grassland were reduced by 77.8% and 1.4%, respectively, from 1987 to 2017. The predicted results indicated that farmland and settlement increased by 26.3% and 6.4%, respectively, while forestland and grassland decreased by 66.5% and 0.8%, respectively, from 2032 to 2047. Eventually, agricultural expansion, population growth, shifting cultivation, fuel wood extraction, and fire risk were identified as the main drivers of LU/LC change. Generally, substantial LU/LC changes were observed and will continue in the future. Hence, land use plan should be proposed to sustain resource of Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves, and local communities' livelihood improvement strategies are required to halt land conversion.