Impact of temperature and sunshine duration on daily new cases and death due to COVID-19

Swati Thangariyal; Aayushi Rastogi; Arvind Tomar; Ajeet S Bhadoria; Sukriti Baweja

doi:10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1185_20

Impact of temperature and sunshine duration on daily new cases and death due to COVID-19

J Family Med Prim Care. 2020 Dec 31;9(12):6091-6101. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1185_20. eCollection 2020 Dec.

Authors

Swati Thangariyal¹, Aayushi Rastogi², Arvind Tomar³, Ajeet S Bhadoria⁴, Sukriti Baweja¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Molecular and Cellular Medicine, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, India.
² Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, India.
³ Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, New Delhi, India.
⁴ Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Rishikesh, Uttarakhand, India.

Abstract

Context: Control of COVID-19 has now become a critical issue for public health. Many ecological factors are proven to influence the transmission and survival of the virus. However, the association between different climatic factors and spread and mortality due to COVID-19 is unknown.

Aim: To determine the association of different climatic factors with the spread and mortality due to COVID-19 during January 2020 to May 2020.

Methods and material: The climatic indicators included in the study were duration of sunshine, average minimum temperature, and average maximum temperature, with cumulative confirmed cases, deceased, and recovered cases. The data was performed for 138 different countries of the world, from January 2020 to May 2020.

Statistical analysis used: Spearman's correlation analysis was used to assess the correlation between temperature and the spread and mortality of COVID-19 cases. Both univariate and multivariate analysis was performed for cumulative and month-wise analysis, using SPSS software.

Results: Average maximum temperature and sunshine duration were significantly associated with COVID-19 confirmed cases, deceased, and recovered. For every 1° increase in average temperature, the confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases decreased by 2047 (P = 0.03), 157 (P = 0.016), and 743 (P = 0.005) individuals. The association remained significant even after adjusting for environmental as well as non-environmental variables. Average sunshine duration was inversely correlated with an increase in daily new cases (r = - 2261) and deaths (r = - 0.2985).

Conclusion: Higher average temperature and longer sunshine duration are strongly associated with COVID-19 cases and deaths in 138 countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; incidence; mortality; sunshine duration; temperature.