This study aims to evaluate the incidence of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) based on CHA2DS2-VASc scores in non-AF Chinese patients with sinus rhythm.We used health check-up data of 101,510 participants from the Kailuan Cohort Study. Participants' risk levels were defined by their CHA2DS2-VASc scores (range 0-3): Men with scores of 0, 1, or ≥ 2 and women with scores of 1, 2, or ≥ 3 were considered at low, intermediate, or high risk, respectively. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between the CHA2DS2-VASc-determined risk and the incidence of ischemic stroke/TIA.The mean 7.5 year follow-up examination revealed 2968 ischemic strokes/TIA events. The incidence rates for ischemic stroke/TIA events in men and women were 3.8% and 1.5%, respectively. The incidence of ischemic stroke/TIA increased with elevated predicted risks based on CHA2DS2-VASc scores in men: 2.2% for low-risk, 4.1% for intermediate-risk, and 7.8% for high-risk groups (P < 0.001 for trend). The incidences of ischemic stroke/TIA also increased with elevated predicted risks in women: 0.8% for low-risk, 2.1% for intermediate-risk, and 5.0% for high-risk groups (P < 0.001 for trend). Compared with low-risk group, the crude hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of ischemic stroke/TIA for men in moderate- and high-risk groups were 1.96 (1.79-2.14; P < 0.001) and 4.18 (3.81-4.57; P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed in women.Risks of ischemic stroke/TIA events was high, particularly among those with high CHA2DS2-VASc scores.
Keywords: Arrhythmia; Cardiovascular disease; Prediction; Risk model.