Prediction of Crop Yield Using Phenological Information Extracted from Remote Sensing Vegetation Index

Abstract

Phenology is an indicator of crop growth conditions, and is correlated with crop yields. In this study, a phenological approach based on a remote sensing vegetation index was explored to predict the yield in 314 counties within the US Corn Belt, divided into semi-arid and non-semi-arid regions. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data product MOD09Q1 was used to calculate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series. According to the NDVI time series, we divided the corn growing season into four growth phases, calculated phenological information metrics (duration and rate) for each growth phase, and obtained the maximum correlation NDVI (Max-R²). Duration and rate represent crop growth days and rate, respectively. Max-R² is the NDVI value with the most significant correlation with corn yield in the NDVI time series. We built three groups of yield regression models, including univariate models using phenological metrics and Max-R², and multivariate models using phenological metrics, and multivariate models using phenological metrics combined with Max-R² in the whole, semi-arid, and non-semi-arid regions, respectively, and compared the performance of these models. The results show that most phenological metrics had a statistically significant (p < 0.05) relationship with corn yield (maximum R² = 0.44). Models established with phenological metrics realized yield prediction before harvest in the three regions with R² = 0.64, 0.67, and 0.72. Compared with the univariate Max-R² models, the accuracy of models built with Max-R² and phenology metrics improved. Thus, the phenology metrics obtained from MODIS-NDVI accurately reflect the corn characteristics and can be used for large-scale yield prediction. Overall, this study showed that phenology metrics derived from remote sensing vegetation indexes could be used as crop yield prediction variables and provide a reference for data organization and yield prediction with physical crop significance.

Keywords: MODIS; NDVI time series; corn; crop phenology; growth phase length; growth rate; yield prediction.