Herbivorous insects must circumvent the chemical defenses of their host plants and, in cropping systems, must also circumvent synthetic insecticides. The pre-adaptation hypothesis posits that when herbivorous insects evolve resistance to insecticides, they co-opt adaptations against host plant defenses. Despite its intuitive appeal, few predictions of this hypothesis have been tested systematically. Here, with survival analysis of more than 17,000 herbivore-insecticide interactions, we show that resistance evolution tends to be faster when herbivorous insect diets are broad (but not too broad) and when insecticides and plant defensive chemicals are similar (but not too similar). These general relations suggest a complex interplay between macro-evolutionary contingencies and contemporary population genetic processes, and provide a predictive framework to forecast which pest species are most likely to develop resistance to particular insecticide chemistries.
Keywords: insecticide resistance; plant–insect interactions; population genetics; pre‐adaptation; survival analysis.
© 2020 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.