Identification of skill in an online game: The case of Fantasy Premier League

PLoS One. 2021 Mar 3;16(3):e0246698. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246698. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers' decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Athletic Performance
  • Decision Making*
  • England
  • Fantasy
  • Humans
  • Online Systems
  • Soccer / psychology*
  • Test Taking Skills / psychology*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Science Foundation Ireland grant numbers 16/IA/4470, 16/RC/3918, 12/RC/2289 P2 and 18/CRT/6049), co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (J.P.G) URLs - https://www.sfi.ie/; https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/erdf/; The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.