There is an urgent need to identify cellular and molecular mechanisms responsible for severe COVID-19 disease accompanied by multiple organ failure and high mortality rates. Here, we performed untargeted/targeted lipidomics and focused biochemistry on 127 patient plasma samples, and showed high levels of circulating, enzymatically active secreted phospholipase A 2 Group IIA (sPLA 2 -IIA) in severe and fatal COVID-19 disease compared with uninfected patients or mild illness. Machine learning demonstrated that sPLA 2 -IIA effectively stratifies severe from fatal COVID-19 disease. We further introduce a PLA-BUN index that combines sPLA 2 -IIA and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) threshold levels as a critical risk factor for mitochondrial dysfunction, sustained inflammatory injury and lethal COVID-19. With the availability of clinically tested inhibitors of sPLA 2 -IIA, our study opens the door to a precision intervention using indices discovered here to reduce COVID-19 mortality.