Background: The Fragility Indexquantifies the reliability of positive trials by estimating the number of events, which would change statistically significant results to non-significant results.
Methods: We identified randomized trials supporting drug approvals by the US FDA between 2009 and 2019 in lung, breast, prostate, and colon cancers and in melanoma. We reconstructed survival tablesand calculated the number of events, which would result in a non-significant result for the primary endpoint. The FI was then compared to the number of patients in each trial who withdrew consent or were lost to follow-up. Regression analyses were used to explore associations between RCT characteristics and FI and trials in which FI was lower or equal to number of participants who withdrew consent or were lost to follow-up.
Results: Among 81 RCTs, the median FI was 28. The median number of patients who withdrew consent or were lost to follow up was 27. FI was equal or lower than the number of patients who withdrew consent or were lost to follow-up in 47 trials (58%). There was a modest increase in FI over time (p = 0.02). Trials with overall survival as the primary endpoint (p = 0.006) and those in the palliative setting (p < 0.001) had lower FI. There was no association with trial sample size or duration of follow-up.
Findings: Statistical significance of RCTs in common solid tumours can be reversed often with a small number of additional events. Post-approval RCTs or real-world data analyses should be performed to ensure results of registration trials are robust.
Keywords: Anti-cancer drug; Drug approval; Fragility index; Solid tumor.
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