An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities

Takeshi Kano; Kotaro Yasui; Taishi Mikami; Munehiro Asally; Akio Ishiguro

doi:10.1098/rspa.2020.0604

An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities

Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2021 Jan;477(2245):20200604. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0604. Epub 2021 Jan 6.

Authors

Takeshi Kano¹, Kotaro Yasui^{1

2}, Taishi Mikami¹, Munehiro Asally^{3

4

5}, Akio Ishiguro¹

Affiliations

¹ Research Institute of Electrical Communication, Tohoku University, 2-1-1 Katahira, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan.
² Frontier Research Institute for Interdisciplinary Sciences, Tohoku University, Aramaki aza Aoba 6-3, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8578, Japan.
³ School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
⁴ Warwick Integrative Synthetic Biology Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
⁵ Bio-Electrical Engineering Innovation Hub, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

Abstract

As of July 2020, COVID-19 caused by SARS-COV-2 is spreading worldwide, causing severe economic damage. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing outbreaks, it causes severe economic losses. Strategies to solve this dilemma by considering the interrelation between the spread of the virus and economic activities are urgently needed to mitigate the health and economic damage. Here, we propose an abstract agent-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak that accounts for economic activities. The computational simulation of the model recapitulates the trade-off between the health and economic damage associated with voluntary restraint measures. Based on the simulation results, we discuss how the macroscopic dynamics of infection and economics emerge from individuals' behaviours. We believe our model can serve as a platform for discussing solutions to the above-mentioned dilemma.

Keywords: COVID-19; agent-based model; economy; infection.

Associated data

figshare/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5253544