Identification of superspreading environment under COVID-19 through human mobility data

Sci Rep. 2021 Feb 25;11(1):4699. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-84089-w.

Abstract

COVID-19 reaffirms the vital role of superspreaders in a pandemic. We propose to broaden the research on superspreaders through integrating human mobility data and geographical factors to identify superspreading environment. Six types of popular public facilities were selected: bars, shopping centres, karaoke/cinemas, mega shopping malls, public libraries, and sports centres. A historical dataset on mobility was used to calculate the generalized activity space and space-time prism of individuals during a pre-pandemic period. Analysis of geographic interconnections of public facilities yielded locations by different classes of potential spatial risk. These risk surfaces were weighed and integrated into a "risk map of superspreading environment" (SE-risk map) at the city level. Overall, the proposed method can estimate empirical hot spots of superspreading environment with statistical accuracy. The SE-risk map of Hong Kong can pre-identify areas that overlap with the actual disease clusters of bar-related transmission. Our study presents first-of-its-kind research that combines data on facility location and human mobility to identify superspreading environment. The resultant SE-risk map steers the investigation away from pure human focus to include geographic environment, thereby enabling more differentiated non-pharmaceutical interventions and exit strategies to target some places more than others when complete city lockdown is not practicable.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Environmental Microbiology
  • Hong Kong / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Public Facilities
  • Restaurants
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Sports and Recreational Facilities