Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model

Takasar Hussain; Muhammad Ozair; Farhad Ali; Sajid Ur Rehman; Taghreed A Assiri; Emad E Mahmoud

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103956

Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model

Results Phys. 2021 Mar:22:103956. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103956. Epub 2021 Feb 18.

Authors

Takasar Hussain¹, Muhammad Ozair¹, Farhad Ali², Sajid Ur Rehman², Taghreed A Assiri³, Emad E Mahmoud⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan.
² Department of Mathematics, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat, Pakistan.
³ Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Taif University, PO Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an SEIQR model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen if precautionary restrictions are adopted.

Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 forecasting; Parameters estimation; SIR mathematical model.