Deciphering land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns, identifying the variables that act as the major driving forces of change, and predicting possible changes are necessary tools of decision support for policymakers. Estuarine landscapes world over are under extreme pressure of developmental activities because of their resources. The developmental activities lead to unforeseen changes in the traditional land use practices, making it necessary for investigation of the possible outcomes. The present study aims to study the changing pattern of LULC in the East Godavari River Estuarine Ecosystem (EGREE) landscape during 1977-2015 using temporal satellite data and to predict the possible LULC changes by 2029. Cellular Automata-Markov model (CAMM) with and without the multi-criteria evaluator (MCE) and the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models were used for future LULC prediction. Between 1977 and 2015, mangroves were converted to aquaculture (5.81 km2) on the landward side and were also lost to submergence at the seaward side (15 km2). All of the coastal scrub (69 km2) was lost to beach clearing. Over this period, the aquaculture area rose to 177 km2. The CAMM with MCE was found to yield better predictions. A further rise was predicted in aquaculture (16%), built-up (30%), and Casuarina plantations (28%) by 2029. The study highlighted the LULC change patterns in EGREE, an important estuarine landscape of India. The information generated in this study can act as baseline information for the stakeholders and policy makers in decision-making of developmental projects, land acquisition, and diversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural purposes.
Keywords: Cellular automata-Markov model; Estuarine ecosystem; Multi-criteria evaluation; Multi-layer perceptron; Prediction modeling.