Fluctuations in influenza-like illness epidemics and suicide mortality: A time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea

PLoS One. 2021 Feb 12;16(2):e0244596. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244596. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Aims: We explored the association between influenza epidemic and suicide mortality rates in a large population using a time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea.

Methods: Weekly suicide mortalities and influenza-like illness (ILI) were analyzed using time series regression. Regression coefficient for suicide mortality based on percentage change of ILI was calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Non-linear distributed lag models with quadratic function up to 24 weeks were constructed.

Results: The association between ILI and suicide mortality increased significantly up to 8 weeks post-influenza diagnosis. A significant positive association between ILI and suicide mortality was observed from 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic. No meaningful association between these factors was observed before 2009.

Conclusion: There was a significant positive relationship between ILI and suicide mortality after 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Databases, Factual
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Influenza A virus / pathogenicity
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / mortality*
  • Influenza, Human / psychology
  • Regression Analysis
  • Republic of Korea / epidemiology
  • Suicidal Ideation
  • Suicide / psychology*
  • Suicide / trends
  • Virus Diseases / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (NRF-2019R1A4A1028155) (to SJJ). This work was supported by Korea Health Industry Development Institute through “Social and Environmental Risk Research” funded by Ministry of Health & Welfare (HI19C0052) (to JHY). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.