Simple non-invasive scoring systems and histological scores in predicting mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background and aim: There is debate among the hepatology community regarding the simple non-invasive scoring systems and histological scores (even it was developed for histological classification) in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study aimed to determine whether the presence of simple non-invasive scoring systems and histological scores could predict all-cause mortality, liver-related mortality, and liver disease decompensation (liver failure, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or decompensated liver disease).

Methods: The pooled hazard ratio of prognostic factors and incidence rate per 1000 person-years in patients with NAFLD was calculated and further adjusted by two different models of handling the duplicated data.

Results: A total of 19 longitudinal studies were included. Most simple non-invasive scoring systems (Fibrosis-4 Score, BARD, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index ) and histological scores (NAFLD activity score, Brunt, and "steatosis, activity, and fibrosis" ) failed in predicting mortality, and only the NAFLD fibrosis score > 0.676 showed prognostic ability to all-cause mortality (four studies, 7564 patients, 118 352 person-years followed up, pooled hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.96). The incidence rate per 1000 person-years of all-cause mortality, liver-related mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality, and liver disease decompensation resulted in a pooled incidence rate per 1000 person-years of 22.65 (14 studies, 95% CI 9.62-53.31), 3.19 (7 studies, 95% CI 1.14-8.93), 6.02 (6 studies, 95% CI 4.69-7.74), and 11.46 (4 studies, 95% CI 5.33-24.63), respectively.

Conclusion: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score showed promising prognostic value to all-cause mortality. Most present simple non-invasive scoring systems and histological scores failed to predict clinical outcomes.

Keywords: NAS histological features; histological scores; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; predicting mortality; simple non-invasive scoring systems.