Prognostic Nomogram of Predictors for Shunt-Dependent Hydrocephalus in Patients with Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Receiving External Ventricular Drain Insertion: A Single-Center Experience and Narrative Review

World Neurosurg. 2021 Jun:150:e12-e22. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2021.01.138. Epub 2021 Feb 5.

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to create a prediction model with a radiographic score, serum, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) values for the occurrence of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SDHC) in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and to review and analyze literature related to the prediction of the development of SDHC.

Methods: Sixty-three patients with aSAH who underwent external ventricular drain insertion were included and separated into 2 subgroups: non-SDHC and SDHC. Patient characteristics, computed tomography scoring system, and serum and CSF parameters were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to illustrate a nomogram for determining the predictors of SDHC. Furthermore, we sorted and summarized previous meta-analyses for predictors of SDHC.

Results: The SDHC group had 42 cases. Stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed 3 independent predictive factors associated with a higher modified Graeb (mGraeb) score, lower level of estimated glomerular filtration rate group, and lower level of CSF glucose. The nomogram, based on these 3 factors, was presented with significant predictive performance (area under curve = 0.895) for SDHC development, compared with other scoring systems (AUC = 0.764-0.885). In addition, a forest plot was generated to present the 12 statistically significant predictors and odds ratio for correlations with the development of SDHC.

Conclusions: First, the development of a nomogram with combined significant factors had a good performance in estimating the risk of SDHC in primary patient evaluation and assisted in clinical decision making. Second, a narrative review, presented with a forest plot, provided the current published data on predicting SDHC.

Keywords: Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage; Modified Graeb score; Shunt-dependent hydrocephalus; Ventriculoperitoneal shunt.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aneurysm, Ruptured / complications
  • Aneurysm, Ruptured / surgery*
  • Cerebrospinal Fluid Shunts / statistics & numerical data*
  • Drainage
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hydrocephalus / etiology
  • Hydrocephalus / surgery*
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / complications
  • Intracranial Aneurysm / surgery*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Meningitis / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Nomograms
  • Postoperative Hemorrhage / epidemiology
  • Prognosis
  • Rupture, Spontaneous
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Sex Factors
  • Subarachnoid Hemorrhage / complications
  • Subarachnoid Hemorrhage / surgery*
  • Vasospasm, Intracranial / etiology
  • Ventriculostomy*