Considering the shortage of per capita water resources in China, the paper established a fractional order accumulated grey prediction model (FGM(1,1)) to predict per capita water consumption of 31 regions (provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions) in China from 2019 to 2024. The results show that per capita water consumption varies greatly across the different regions. Among them, per capita water consumption of nine regions (i.e., Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Shaanxi) shows an increasing trend, whereas per capita water consumption in other 22 regions shows a downward trend. The predictive results can provide a basis for water resource management in China.
Keywords: Fractional order accumulated gray prediction model; Particle swarm optimization algorithm; Per capita water consumption; Water resources.