Modeling transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal

Buddhi Pantha; Sunil Giri; Hem Raj Joshi; Naveen K Vaidya

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.009

Modeling transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal

Infect Dis Model. 2021 Jan 12:6:284-301. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.009. eCollection 2021.

Authors

Buddhi Pantha¹, Sunil Giri², Hem Raj Joshi³, Naveen K Vaidya^{4

5

6}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Science and Mathematics, Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College, Tifton, GA, USA.
² Department of Mathematics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
³ Department of Mathematics, Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
⁵ Computational Science Research Center, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
⁶ Viral Information Institute, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.

Abstract

Even though vaccines against rabies are available, rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world, including Nepal. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal. In particular, an indirect interspecies transmission from jackals to humans through dogs, which is relevant to the context of Nepal, is one of the novel features of our model. Our model utilizes annual dog-bite data collected from Nepal for a decade long period, allowing us to reasonably estimate parameters related to rabies transmission in Nepal. Using our model, we calculated the basic reproduction number ( $R_{0} = 1.16$ ) as well as intraspecies basic reproduction numbers of dogs ( $R_{0}^{D} = 1.14$ ) and jackals ( $R_{0}^{J} = 0.07$ ) for Nepal, and identified that the dog-related parameters are primary contributors to $R_{0}$ . Our results show that, along with dogs, jackals may also play an important role, albeit lesser extent, in the persistence of rabies in Nepal. Our model also suggests that control strategies may help reduce the prevalence significantly but the jackal vaccination may not be as effective as dog-related preventive strategies. To get deeper insight into the role of intraspecies and interspecies transmission between dog and jackal populations in the persistence of rabies, we also extended our model analysis into a wider parameter range. Interestingly, for some feasible parameters, even though rabies is theoretically controlled in each dog and jackal populations ( $R_{0}^{D} < 1$ , $R_{0}^{J} < 1$ ) if isolated, the rabies epidemic may still occur ( $R_{0} > 1$ ) due to interspecies transmission. These results may be useful to design effective prevention and control strategies for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal and other parts of the world.

Keywords: 34G20; 34K13; 92D30; Interspecies transmission; Intraspecies transmission; Mathematical models; Nepal; R0; Rabies.