Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics

Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Nov 19;18(1):92-111. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021005.

Abstract

Asymptomatic transmission of infectious diseases has been recognized recently in several epidemics or pandemics. There is a great need to incorporate asymptomatic transmissions into traditional modeling of infectious diseases and to study how asymptomatic transmissions shift epidemic dynamics. In this work, we propose a compartmental model with asymptomatic transmissions for waterborne infectious diseases. We conduct a detailed analysis and numerical study with shigellosis data. Two parameters, the proportion $p$ of asymptomatic infected individuals and the proportion $k$ of asymptomatic infectious individuals who can asymptomatically transmit diseases, play major rules in the epidemic dynamics. The basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is a decreasing function of parameter $p$ when parameter $k$ is smaller than a critical value while $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is an increasing function of $p$ when $k$ is greater than the critical value. $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is an increasing function of $k$ for any value of $p$. When $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ passes through 1 as $p$ or $k$ varies, the dynamics of epidemics is shifted. If asymptomatic transmissions are not counted, $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ will be underestimated while the final size may be overestimated or underestimated. Our study provides a theoretical example for investigating other asymptomatic transmissions and useful information for public health measurements in waterborne infectious diseases.

Keywords: asymptomatic transmission; basic reproduction number; final size.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology
  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Communicable Diseases* / epidemiology
  • Epidemics*
  • Humans
  • Pandemics