Quantifying the transmission advantage associated with N501Y substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK: an early data-driven analysis

Shi Zhao; Jingzhi Lou; Lirong Cao; Hong Zheng; Marc K C Chong; Zigui Chen; Renee W Y Chan; Benny C Y Zee; Paul K S Chan; Maggie H Wang

doi:10.1093/jtm/taab011

Quantifying the transmission advantage associated with N501Y substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK: an early data-driven analysis

J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23;28(2):taab011. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taab011.

Authors

Shi Zhao^{1

2}, Jingzhi Lou¹, Lirong Cao¹, Hong Zheng¹, Marc K C Chong^{1

2}, Zigui Chen³, Renee W Y Chan⁴, Benny C Y Zee^{1

2}, Paul K S Chan³, Maggie H Wang^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
² CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
³ Department of Microbiology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
⁴ Department of Paediatrics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

Abstract

The emerging N501Y mutation in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which becomes prevalent in the UK rapidly, is one of the major challenges of COVID-19 control. To explore the transmission advantage, we estimate that the N501Y substitution increases the infectivity by 52% (95% confidence interval: 46, 58) in terms of the reproduction number.

Keywords: B.1.1.7 lineage; COVID-19; mutation; reproduction number; statistical modelling; transmission advantage.

MeSH terms

COVID-19 / epidemiology
COVID-19 / genetics*
COVID-19 / transmission
Humans
SARS-CoV-2 / pathogenicity*
United Kingdom / epidemiology