Forecasting PM2.5 using hybrid graph convolution-based model considering dynamic wind-field to offer the benefit of spatial interpretability

Hongye Zhou; Feng Zhang; Zhenhong Du; Renyi Liu

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116473

Forecasting PM_2.5 using hybrid graph convolution-based model considering dynamic wind-field to offer the benefit of spatial interpretability

Environ Pollut. 2021 Jan 19:273:116473. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116473. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Hongye Zhou¹, Feng Zhang², Zhenhong Du³, Renyi Liu⁴

Affiliations

¹ School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China.
² School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Hangzhou, 310028, China. Electronic address: zfcarnation@zju.edu.cn.
³ School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Hangzhou, 310028, China.
⁴ School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Hangzhou, 310028, China; Ocean Academy, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, 316021, China.

PMID: 33503566
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116473

Abstract

Air pollution is a complex process and is affected by meteorological conditions and other chemical components. Numerous studies have demonstrated that data-driven spatio-temporal prediction models of PM_2.5 concentration are comparable with the model-driven model. However, data-driven models are usually depending on the statistical correlation between PM_2.5 and other factors and have challenges in dealing with causality in complex systems. In this paper, we argue that domain knowledge should be incorporated into data-driven models to enhance prediction accuracy and make the model more physically realistic. We focus on the influence of dynamic wind-field on PM_2.5 concentration distribution and fuse the pollution diffusion distance with the deep learning model based on a wind-field surface. In order to model spatial dependence between monitoring stations, which is dynamic and anisotropic because of the wind-field, we proposed a hybrid deep learning framework, dynamic directed spatio-temporal graph convolution networks (DD-STGCN). It expanded the ability to deal with space-time prediction in the continuous and dynamic wind-field. We used a directed graph time-series to describe the vertex state and topological relationship between vertices and replaced traditional Euclidean distance with wind-field diffusion distance to describe the proximity relationship between vertices. Our experiment results demonstrated that the DD-STGCN model achieved a better prediction ability than LSTM, GC-LSTM, and STGCN models. Compared to the best comparison model, MAPE, MAE, and RMSE were improved by 10.2%, 9.7%, and 9.6% in 12 h on an average, respectively. The performance of our model was further tested during a haze period. In the case that two models both considered the effect of wind, compared with the pure data-driven model, our model performed better in prediction distribution and showed the benefit of spatial interpretability provided by domain knowledge.

Keywords: Domain knowledge; Dynamic wind-field; Graph convolution network; PM(2.5) concentration forecast; Temporal convolution network.