In a future scenario of increasing temperatures in North-Atlantic waters, the risk associated with the expansion of the harmful, benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. siamensis has to be evaluated and monitored. Microscopy observations and spatio-temporal surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) were associated with Lagrangian particle dispersal simulations to: (i) establish the current colonization of the species in the Bay of Biscay, (ii) assess the spatial connectivity among sampling zones that explain this distribution, and (iii) identify the sentinel zones to monitor future expansion. Throughout a sampling campaign carried out in August to September 2018, microscope analysis showed that the species develops in the south-east of the bay where optimal temperatures foster blooms. Quantitative PCR analyses revealed its presence across almost the whole bay to the western English Channel. An eDNA time-series collected on plastic samplers showed that the species occurs in the bay from April to September. Due to the water circulation, colonization of the whole bay from the southern blooming zones is explained by inter-site connectivity. Key areas in the middle of the bay permit continuous dispersal connectivity towards the north. These key areas are proposed as sentinel zones to monitor O. cf. siamensis invasions towards the presumably warming water of the North-East Atlantic.
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