In silico prediction of influenza vaccine effectiveness by sequence analysis

Lirong Cao; Jingzhi Lou; Shi Zhao; Renee W Y Chan; Martin Chan; William K K Wu; Marc Ka Chun Chong; Benny Chung-Ying Zee; Eng Kiong Yeoh; Samuel Yeung-Shan Wong; Paul K S Chan; Maggie Haitian Wang

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.01.006

In silico prediction of influenza vaccine effectiveness by sequence analysis

Vaccine. 2021 Feb 12;39(7):1030-1034. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.01.006. Epub 2021 Jan 19.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: caolr@link.cuhk.edu.hk.
² JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: jzlou@qq.com.
³ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.
⁴ Department of Pediatrics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK-UMCU Joint Research Laboratory of Respiratory Virus & Immunobiology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: reneewy@cuhk.edu.hk.
⁵ Department of Microbiology, Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: martin.chan@cuhk.edu.hk.
⁶ CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China; Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: williamkkwu1980@gmail.com.
⁷ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: marc@cuhk.edu.hk.
⁸ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: bzee@cuhk.edu.hk.
⁹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: yeoh_ek@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹⁰ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: yeungshanwong@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹¹ Department of Microbiology, Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Electronic address: paulkschan@cuhk.edu.hk.
¹² JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.

PMID: 33483214
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.01.006

Abstract

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines varies with the matching of vaccine strains to circulating strains. Based on the genetic distance of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene of the influenza viruses to vaccine strains, we statistically quantified the relationship between the genetic mismatch and vaccine effectiveness (VE) for influenza A/H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2 and B. We also proposed a systematic approach to integrate multiple genes and influenza types for overall VE estimation. Evident linear relationships were identified and validated in independent data. The modelling framework may enable in silico prediction for VE on a real-time basis and inform the influenza vaccine selection strategy.

Keywords: Influenza; Real-time estimation; Vaccine effectiveness.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Computer Simulation
Humans
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype
Influenza Vaccines*
Influenza, Human* / prevention & control
Sequence Analysis

Substances

Influenza Vaccines