Disease-Based Risk Stratification of Postendoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis for Common Bile Duct Stones

Abstract

Background: Risk stratification of postendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) for common bile duct (CBD) stones is needed for clinicians to adequately explain to patients regarding the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP and to proactively take preventive measures in high-risk patients.

Aims: To stratify the risk of PEP for CBD stones based on CBD-related diseases.

Methods: A total of 1551 patients with naïve papilla who underwent ERCP for CBD stones were divided into three groups: Group A: asymptomatic CBD stones, Group B: obstructive jaundice and elevated liver test values without cholangitis, and Group C: mild, moderate, and severe cholangitis. We stratified the risk of PEP by comparing its incidence among the three groups using the Holm's method. Furthermore, we performed one-to-one propensity score matching between Group A and the other groups to examine the risk of PEP in Group A.

Results: The incidence rates in Groups A, B, and C were 13.7%, 7.3%, and 1.8%, respectively. The Holm-adjusted p values between Groups A and B, Groups A and C, and Groups B and C were 0.023, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively. Propensity score matching revealed that the incidence of PEP was significantly more in Group A than in the other groups (13.3% vs. 1.5%; p < 0.001).

Conclusions: The risk of PEP for CBD stones was stratified into low risk (Group C), intermediate risk (Group B), and high risk (Group A). This simple disease-based risk stratification may be useful to predict the risk of PEP in advance of ERCP.

Keywords: Biliary tract; Common bile duct; Endoscopic retrograde; Pancreatitis; Risk assessment.