This paper focuses on the impact of changes in planting industry structure on carbon emissions. Based on the statistical data of the planting industry in three provinces in Northeast China from 1999 to 2018, the study calculated the carbon emissions, carbon absorptions and net carbon sinks of the planting industry by using crop parameter estimation and carbon emissions inventory estimation methods. In addition, the multiple linear regression model and panel data model were used to analyze and test the carbon emissions and net carbon sinks of the planting industry. The results show that: (1). The increase of the planting area of rice, corn, and peanuts in the three northeastern provinces of China will promote carbon emissions, while the increase of the planting area of wheat, sorghum, soybeans, and vegetables will reduce carbon emissions; (2). Fertilizer application, technological progress, and planting structure factors have a significant positive effect on net carbon sinks, among which the changes in the planting industry structure have the greatest impact on net carbon sinks. Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is suggested that, under the guidance of the government, resource endowment and location advantages should be given full play to, and the internal planting structure of crops should be reasonably adjusted so as to promote the development of low-carbon agriculture and accelerate the development process of agricultural modernization.
Keywords: carbon emissions; low-carbon agriculture; net carbon sinks; plantation structure; three provinces in Northeast China.