Global warming impact to River Basin of Blue Nile and the optimum operation of its multi-reservoir system for hydropower production and irrigation

Tebikachew Betru Tariku; Kai Ernn Gan; Xuezhi Tan; Thian Yew Gan; Haiyun Shi; Amaury Tilmant

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144863

Global warming impact to River Basin of Blue Nile and the optimum operation of its multi-reservoir system for hydropower production and irrigation

Sci Total Environ. 2021 May 1:767:144863. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144863. Epub 2021 Jan 2.

Authors

Tebikachew Betru Tariku¹, Kai Ernn Gan², Xuezhi Tan³, Thian Yew Gan⁴, Haiyun Shi⁵, Amaury Tilmant⁶

Affiliations

¹ Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
² Dept. of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L7, Canada.
³ Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
⁴ Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Electronic address: tgan@ualberta.ca.
⁵ School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
⁶ Department of Civil and Water Engineering, Université Laval, Québec, Canada.

PMID: 33450592
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144863

Abstract

The water resource of the Blue Nile River basin (BNRB) has been under pressure due to growing demands from many users, and the climate change impact. Potential impact of climate change for the maximum, median and minimum projected changes in the simulated streamflow of BNRB by a hydrologic model, VIC, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, of 4 GCMs (global climate models) downscaled dynamically by a regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) using a one-domain framework that covers the entire NRB for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. These projected changes in streamflow were used to assess its future water allocations using a stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm and a hydro-economic model to optimize hydropower production and irrigated agriculture. Overall, it seems the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir will likely not operate at full storage level because the streamflow of BNRB is assumed to be regulated by three upstream reservoirs. The outflow from the reservoir of GERD or BNRB's annual flow at Khartoum is projected to increase under maximum, but is expected to decrease under minimum and median projected changes in streamflow for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Given the annual net benefit obtained from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the reservoir is projected to increase (decrease) under the maximum (median and minimum) projected changes in streamflow, the potential climate change impact should be considered in designing and developing the future water resources of BNRB.

Keywords: Blue Nile River Basin; Climate change impact; Hydropower; Irrigation water; Reservoir optimization; Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP).