Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

Zijie Xu; Jing Jing; Guiliang Ma

doi:10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2020.06.11

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

Chin J Cancer Res. 2020 Dec 31;32(6):778-793. doi: 10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2020.06.11.

Authors

Zijie Xu¹, Jing Jing², Guiliang Ma¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of General Surgery, Qingdao Municipal Hospital, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China.
² Department of Endocrinology, Qingdao Municipal Hospital, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China.

PMID: 33447000
PMCID: PMC7797227
DOI: 10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2020.06.11

Abstract

Objective: Our aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods: We selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.

Results: Six independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.

Conclusions: The novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.

Keywords: Log odds of positive lymph nodes; nomograms; prognosis; signet ring cell.