The utility of molecular markers for predicting the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal lesions (MACLs) remains poorly investigated. We examined the relationship between somatic hypermethylation in polyps at baseline and the risk of developing MACL. This retrospective cohort study included 281 consecutive patients with colonic polyps who were enrolled between 2007 and 2009 and followed-up until 2014. MACLs were defined as adenomas of ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, or with a villous component; and serrated lesions of ≥10 mm or with dysplasia. In total, 595 polyps were removed at baseline colonoscopy and analyzed for pathological characteristics and CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) using the MS-MLPA (Methylation-Specific -- Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification) technique. Forty-five patients (16.0%) showed at least one CIMP+ polyp. MACL risk was higher in patients with CIMP+ polyps (odds ratio (OR), 4.50; 95% CI, 1.78-11.4; p = 0.002). Patients with CIMP+ polyps also exhibited shorter time to MACL development (33.8 months vs. 50.1 months; p < 0.001), even with adjustment for polyp size and number (OR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.33-4.34). Adding CIMP analysis improved the sensitivity (57.0% to 70.9%), negative predictive value (71.1% to 77.3%), and overall accuracy (49.8% to 52.0%) for MACL risk estimation. These results highlight that CIMP may be a useful marker for endoscopic surveillance.
Keywords: CIMP; metachronous advanced colorectal lesions; methylation; polyps.