Machine Learning to Differentiate Risk of Suicide Attempt and Self-harm After General Medical Hospitalization of Women With Mental Illness

Abstract

Background: Suicide prevention is a public health priority, but risk factors for suicide after medical hospitalization remain understudied. This problem is critical for women, for whom suicide rates in the United States are disproportionately increasing.

Objective: To differentiate the risk of suicide attempt and self-harm following general medical hospitalization among women with depression, bipolar disorder, and chronic psychosis.

Methods: We developed a machine learning algorithm that identified risk factors of suicide attempt and self-harm after general hospitalization using electronic health record data from 1628 women in the University of California Los Angeles Integrated Clinical and Research Data Repository. To assess replicability, we applied the algorithm to a larger sample of 140,848 women in the New York City Clinical Data Research Network.

Results: The classification tree algorithm identified risk groups in University of California Los Angeles Integrated Clinical and Research Data Repository (area under the curve 0.73, sensitivity 73.4, specificity 84.1, accuracy 0.84), and predictor combinations characterizing key risk groups were replicated in New York City Clinical Data Research Network (area under the curve 0.71, sensitivity 83.3, specificity 82.2, and accuracy 0.84). Predictors included medical comorbidity, history of pregnancy-related mental illness, age, and history of suicide-related behavior. Women with antecedent medical illness and history of pregnancy-related mental illness were at high risk (6.9%-17.2% readmitted for suicide-related behavior), as were women below 55 years old without antecedent medical illness (4.0%-7.5% readmitted).

Conclusions: Prevention of suicide attempt and self-harm among women following acute medical illness may be improved by screening for sex-specific predictors including perinatal mental health history.