On the effectiveness of the search and find method to suppress spread of SARS-CoV-2

Proc Jpn Acad Ser B Phys Biol Sci. 2021;97(1):22-49. doi: 10.2183/pjab.97.002.

Abstract

Search and find methods*) such as cluster tracing1)-6) or large-scale PCR testing**) of those who exhibit no symptoms or only mild symptoms of COVID-19 is shown by data analysis to be a powerful means to suppress the spread of COVID-19 instead of, or in addition to, lockdown of the entire population. Here we investigate this issue by analyzing the data from some cities and countries and we establish that search and find method is as powerful as lockdown of a city or a country. Moreover, in contrast to lockdown, it neither causes inconvenience to citizens nor does it disrupt the economy. Generally speaking, it is advisable that both social distancing and increased test numbers be employed to suppress spread of the virus. The product of the total test number with the rate of positive cases is the crucial index.

Keywords: COVID-19; PCR test; SARS-CoV-2; SIR model; cluster.

MeSH terms

  • Africa / epidemiology
  • Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing / statistics & numerical data
  • China / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Communicable Disease Control / statistics & numerical data
  • Disease Hotspot
  • Health Policy
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Herd
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Los Angeles / epidemiology
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • New York / epidemiology
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data
  • Physical Distancing
  • Quarantine
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Sweden / epidemiology
  • Tokyo / epidemiology
  • United States / epidemiology