Objective: Incidental detection of thyroid cancers has been proposed as a cause of thyroid cancer increases over past decades, but few studies assess the impact of imaging utilization on thyroid cancer incidence. This study quantifies neck CT prevalence and its relationship with thyroid cancer incidence as a function of age, sex and race.
Design and patients: Medical records of over 1 million patients at our institution were retrospectively analysed to quantify neck CT prevalence from 2004 to 2011 (study period). A national cancer database was used to compute thyroid cancer incidences over the study period and a reference period (1974-81) and to calculate change in thyroid incidence between the two periods. Both populations were partitioned into demographic subgroups of varying age, sex and race. Linear correlation between neck imaging and thyroid cancer incidence changes among subgroups was assessed using Pearson's correlation.
Results: Neck CT imaging and change in thyroid cancer incidence varied across all examined demographic variables, particularly age. When stratifying by age, CT use correlated strongly with recent national thyroid cancer incidence (R = .97) and with 30-year change in thyroid cancer incidence (R = .87). Across all demographic subgroups, CT prevalence correlated strongly and positively with change in thyroid cancer incidence (R = .60), greater for whites (R = .60) and blacks (R = .70) than other races (R = .28).
Conclusion: Differences in neck CT usage strongly and positively correlates with the variation in thyroid cancer trends based on age, gender and race.
Keywords: imaging utilization; over diagnosis.
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.