Background: Abnormalities of bone mineral parameters are associated with increased mortality in patients on dialysis, but their effects and the optimal range of these biomarkers are less well characterized in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Methods: PECERA (Collaborative Study Project in Patients with Advanced CKD) is a 3-year, prospective multicenter, open-cohort study of 966 adult patients with non-dialyzed CKD stages 4-5 enrolled from 12 centers in Spain. Associations between levels of serum calcium (Ca) (corrected for albumin), phosphate (P), and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) with all-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cardiovascular mortality (secondary outcome) were examined using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models and penalized splines analysis adjusted by demographics and comorbidities, treatments and biochemical values collected every 6 months for 3 years.
Results: After a median follow-up of 29 months (IQR: 13-36 months) there were 181 deaths (19%). The association of calcium with all-cause mortality was J-shaped, with an increased risk for all-cause mortality at levels > 10.5 mg/dL. For phosphate and iPTH levels, the association was U-shaped. The serum values associated with the minimum risk of mortality were 3.8 mg/dL for phosphate and 70 pg/mL for iPTH, being the lowest risk ranges between 2.8 and 5.0 mg/dL, and between 38 and 112 pg/mL for phosphate and iPTH, respectively.
Conclusions: Our study provides evidence on the non-linear association of serum calcium, phosphate and iPTH levels with mortality in stage 4 and 5 CKD patients, and suggests potential survival benefits for controlling bone mineral parameters in this population, as previously reported for dialysis patients.
Keywords: Calcium; Chronic kidney disease; Hyperparathyroidism; Phosphate; Survival analysis.
© 2021. Italian Society of Nephrology.