The bioaerosol exposure data from the study by Akpeimeh, Fletcher, and Evans (2019) was used to compute the risk of infection from the exposure of dumpsite workers to Aspergillus fumigatus and Escherichia coli O157:H7. A stochastic (Markov Chain) model was used to model the transport of the inhaled dose though the human respiratory system and then integrated into the beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate workers risks of respiratory and gastrointestinal (GI) infection. The infection risk was computed based on workers exposure to E. coli O157:H7 at 10-50% pathogen ingestion rate and pathogen-indicator ratio (P:I) of 1:103 and 1:104 , while exposure to A. fumigatus was based solely on the average initial exposure dose. The results showed that after 11 hours of exposure, workers engaged in scavenging, waste sorting, and site monitoring were at risk of respiratory and GI infection in the magnitude of 10-1 . However, the risk estimates associated with specific areas of the dumpsite showed that, the risk of GI infection at the active area ranged between 3.23 × 10-3 -1.56 × 10-2 and 3.25 × 10-4 -1.62 × 10-3 ; dormant area 2.06 × 10-3 -1.01 × 10-2 and 2.09 × 10-4 -1.04 × 10-3 ; entrance 1.85 × 10-3 -9.09 × 10-3 and 1.87 × 10-4 -9.27 × 10-4 ; boundary 1.82 × 10-3 -8.82 × 10-3 and 2.09 × 10-4 -8.94 × 10-4 for P:I = 1:103 and 1:104 respectively, while the risk of respiratory infection risks were in the magnitude of 10-1 for all four locations. The estimated risk of workers developing respiratory and gastrointestinal infections were high for all activities assessed at the dumpsite.
Keywords: Aspergillus fumigatus; E. coli; QMRA; bioaerosols; open dumpsite.
© 2020 Society for Risk Analysis.