This study aimed to develop and validate two predictive models of postpartum post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) risk using a retrospective cohort study of women who gave birth between 2018 and 2019 in Spain. The predictive models were developed using a referral cohort of 1752 women (2/3) and were validated on a cohort of 875 women (1/3). The predictive factors in model A were delivery type, skin-to-skin contact, admission of newborn to care unit, presence of a severe tear, type of infant feeding at discharge, postpartum hospital readmission. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in the referral cohort was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.74), while in the validation cohort, it was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63-0.75). The predictive factors in model B were delivery type, admission of newborn to care unit, type of infant feeding at discharge, postpartum hospital readmission, partner support, and the perception of adequate respect from health professionals. The predictive capacity of model B in both the referral cohort and the validation cohort was superior to model A with an AUC-ROC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.87), respectively. A predictive model (model B) formed by clinical variables and the perception of partner support and appropriate treatment by health professionals had a good predictive capacity in both the referral and validation cohorts. This model is preferred over the model (model A) that was formed exclusively by clinical variables.
Keywords: post-traumatic stress disorder; predictive model; validation.