The simulation analysis of the migration path and soil accumulation trend of Cd in paddy soil systems could contribute to improved scientific and reasonable risk decision-making. In this study, based on a regional survey of environmental media in Youxian County, Hunan Province, a pollutant accumulation model (PAM) was built to predict the cumulative trend of Cd in paddy soils. Combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the PAM model was used to evaluate the effectiveness and sustainability of various remediation measures. Results showed that the probability of Cd accumulation in paddy soils in Youxian County exceeded that of the national soil environmental quality standard by 2-fold and was up to 82.1%, and the average accumulation rate reached 4.28 μg·(kg·a)-1 after 50 years of cultivation under current input pattern. Sensitivity analysis results showed that atmospheric deposition and rice uptake were the key processes affecting Cd accumulation in paddy soils. Results of a multi-scenario simulation showed that the comprehensive measures, such as reducing the straw returning, optimizing the layout of industrial and mining enterprises that reduce the atmospheric deposition of Cd, and cleaning irrigation water, could reduce the Cd accumulation in paddy soils by 43.7% and reduce the probability of light Cd pollution by 80.6% after 50 years, which would be an effective long-term measure to prevent and control Cd pollution risk in paddy soils.
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; cadmium accumulation risk; mass balance model; paddy soils; sensitivity analysis.