C-reactive protein for simple prediction of mortality in patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A retrospective analysis

Abstract

In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), scoring systems using multiple variables were developed to predict patient outcomes. We evaluated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) for simple prediction of patient mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.The associated factors for 30-day mortality was investigated by regression analysis in patients with acute non-variceal UGIB (N = 1232). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve was analyzed with serum CRP in these patients and a prospective cohort (N = 435). The discriminant validity of serum CRP was compared to other prognostic scoring systems by means of AUROC curve analysis.Serum CRP was significantly higher in the expired than survived patients (median, 4.53 vs 0.49; P < .001). The odds ratio of serum CRP was 4.18 (2.10-9.27) in multivariate analysis. The odds ratio of high serum CRP was higher than Rockall score (4.15 vs 1.29), AIMS65 (3.55 vs 1.71) and Glasgow-Blatchford score (4.32 vs 1.08) in multivariate analyses. The AUROC of serum CRP at bleeding was 0.78 for 30-day mortality (P < .001). In the validation set, serum CRP was also significantly higher in the expired than survived patients, of which AUROC was 0.73 (P < .001). In predicting 30-day mortality, the AUROC with serum CRP was not inferior to that of other scoring systems.Serum CRP at bleeding can be simply used to identify the patients with high mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.