Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities

Abubaker Omer; Nadir Ahmed Elagib; Ma Zhuguo; Farhan Saleem; Alnail Mohammed

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141446

Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 20:749:141446. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141446. Epub 2020 Aug 3.

Authors

Abubaker Omer¹, Nadir Ahmed Elagib², Ma Zhuguo³, Farhan Saleem⁴, Alnail Mohammed⁵

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment-Research for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
² Bӧckingstr. 55, Kӧln Mülheim 51063, Germany.
³ Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment-Research for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China. Electronic address: mazg@tea.ac.cn.
⁴ College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
⁵ Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

PMID: 33370882
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141446

Abstract

Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, water scarcity is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This study integrates scenarios of climate change and human activities under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a watershed-scale hydrological model, and uses the Water Use-to-Availability Ratio (WUAR) to study future water scarcity over six sub-catchments in the YRB. It further investigates the relationship between the future water scarcity and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers. The results suggest that the average WUAR under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will likely exceed the water scarcity threshold (WUAR >20%) and will reach up to 39.9 and 44.7%, respectively. The average WUAR for the upstream and downstream sub-catchments will likely range from 23.8 to 51.6% under RCP4.5 and from 25.5% to 73.8% under RCP8.5, indicating moderate to severe and moderate to extreme water scarcity, respectively. Future WUAR correlates negatively (r-value = -0.85) with the streamflow drought index (SDI) in the upstream sub-catchments, i.e., hydrological drought will likely intensify water scarcity. Conversely, WUAR and SDI would be positively correlated (r-value = +0.70) in the downstream sub-catchments, i.e., water scarcity will become severer despite decreasing severity of hydrological drought. Under climate change, water scarcity in these sub-catchments will exhibit high dependency (Kendall τ correlation coefficient = 0.84) on water-use patterns than on water availability. The regression analysis indicates that the WUAR will increase significantly (p < 0.05) with projected woodland, cropland, and buildup areas under RCP4.5. This relationship will become even more significant (p < 0.01) under RCP8.5. This study provides insights into the potential drivers of future water scarcity in the YRB, which is likely to confront water supply crises. The study should help policymaking towards attaining sustainable water management in the basin.

Keywords: Climate change; Drought; Human activities; Land-use changes; Water scarcity; Yellow River Basin.