Effects of COVID-19 on mortality: A 5-year population-based study in Oman

Abstract

Background: Mortality surveillance provides a crucial method for monitoring disease activity. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can cause excess mortality both directly and indirectly by increasing deaths from other diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of COVID-19 on mortality in Oman.

Methods: A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of mortality data from 1 January 2015 to 16 August 2020 was undertaken. Baseline mortality estimated using the Farrington flexible model and excess mortality were calculated for the pandemic period (16 March-16 August 2020) according to cause of death, place of death and age group.

Results: During the pandemic period, there was a 15% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14-17] increase in all-cause mortality from baseline. When classifying by cause, there was a 9% (95% CI 5-12) increase in deaths due to respiratory diseases, a 2% (95% CI 1-4) increase in deaths due to infectious diseases and a 9% (95% CI 8-11) increase in unclassified deaths. In terms of place of death, 12% (95% CI 11-14) of excess mortality occurred in hospitals and 7% (95% CI 5-8) occurred in homes during the pandemic period. Patients aged >60 years recorded a 15% (95% CI 13-16) increase in all-cause mortality during this period.

Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a 15% increase in all-cause mortality in Oman, mainly as a result of deaths from COVID-19. However, unclassified deaths, deaths due to respiratory diseases and deaths due to infectious diseases have also increased, enforcing the need for a holistic approach and appropriate coordination of health services during such health crises.

Keywords: COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Non-communicable diseases; Oman; Pandemic; Retrospective studies.