Predicting the rising incidence and mortality of endometrial cancers among women aged 65-74 years in Catalonia

Abstract

Endometrial cancer is currently one of the most common gynecological cancers. Reported incidence rates vary in Spain depending on the region. We estimated what the incidence and mortality of endometrial cancers in Catalonia will be by 2030 and compared the predictions with data from 2010. Bayesian autoregressive age-period-cohort models were employed to predict incidence and mortality rates for 2015-2030. The incidence of endometrial cancer for women younger than 65 years was predicted to be lower in 2030 than in 2010, whereas it was predicted to be higher for women aged 65-74 years. Moreover, mortality rates for women aged ≥65 in 2030 are likely to exceed the rates in 2010. Five-year relative survival for all ages was slightly higher in the period 2005-2009 (79.3 %, 95 %CI: 75.8 %-82.9 %) compared with those in 1995-1999 (76.0 %, 95 %CI: 72.1 %-80.2 %). This plausible new scenario might be useful to plan new clinical and preventive strategies in the near future.

Keywords: Elderly women; Endometrial cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Survival; Time trends.