Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan

Yinliang Diao; Sachiko Kodera; Daisuke Anzai; Jose Gomez-Tames; Essam A Rashed; Akimasa Hirata

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100203

Influence of population density, temperature, and absolute humidity on spread and decay durations of COVID-19: A comparative study of scenarios in China, England, Germany, and Japan

One Health. 2020 Dec 11:12:100203. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100203. eCollection 2021 Jun.

Authors

Yinliang Diao¹, Sachiko Kodera¹, Daisuke Anzai^{1

2}, Jose Gomez-Tames^{1

2}, Essam A Rashed^{1

3}, Akimasa Hirata^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan.
² Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan.
³ Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, Egypt.

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, absolute humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of the spread and decay durations with population density in the four analyzed countries. Specifically, spread duration showed a high correlation with population density and absolute humidity (p < 0.05), whereas decay duration demonstrated the highest correlation with population density, absolute humidity, and maximum temperature (p < 0.05). The effect of population density was almost nonexistent in China because of the implemented strict lockdown. Our findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions in the next pandemic, as well as in the next waves of COVID-19.

Keywords: Absolute humidity; COVID-19; Multivariable analysis; Population density; Temperature.