Quantitative Analysis on Risk Influencing Factors in the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River

Jinfen Zhang; Anxin He; Cunlong Fan; Xinping Yan; C Guedes Soares

doi:10.1111/risa.13662

Quantitative Analysis on Risk Influencing Factors in the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River

Risk Anal. 2021 Sep;41(9):1560-1578. doi: 10.1111/risa.13662. Epub 2020 Dec 19.

Authors

Jinfen Zhang^{1

2}, Anxin He^{1

2}, Cunlong Fan^{1

2}, Xinping Yan^{1

2}, C Guedes Soares³

Affiliations

¹ Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.
² National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTS Center), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.
³ Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal.

PMID: 33340127
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13662

Abstract

Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk.

Keywords: Conjugate Bayesian model; Jiangsu segment of the Yangtze river; maritime transportation; risk influencing factors (RIFs); ship collision.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't