A new model for hospital bed numbers which adjusts for end-of-life care and age structure is used to demonstrate that England has 20% fewer occupied beds than the other countries in the United Kingdom. It also shows that occupied beds in English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) lie parallel to a line of equivalence with New Zealand and Singapore. This is despite New Zealand and Singapore having invested many years into developing integrated care, while England has not. In addition, England has around half the number of nursing home beds per death available in these two countries. Large bed reductions proposed in the sustainability and transformation plans were likely to have been manipulated to meet financial cost-saving targets rather than a result of genuine modelling of demand. The ways in which bed demand models can be manipulated to give whatever answer is required are discussed. Trends in occupied acute medical beds in England over the past 20 years show no real reduction, despite a large reduction in available beds. This has resulted in daytime occupancy for adult beds being close to 100% and with resulting queues to admission. The ways to improve the small-area application of the model including the use of deprivation or social groups are discussed.
Keywords: English NHS; demographic forecasting; end of life; hospital bed numbers; international comparison.
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.